Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 0.513651 0.593830 0.681564 0.784575 0.902095 1.031872 1.185929
2025-06-22 0.364826 0.470032 0.597054 0.761176 0.967048 1.216133 1.539705
2025-06-29 0.282112 0.393621 0.538294 0.738632 1.007597 1.354779 1.835252
2025-07-06 0.228264 0.340301 0.494563 0.720677 1.041507 1.477855 2.113181
2025-07-13 0.198634 0.313527 0.480002 0.736139 1.116991 1.658262 2.480560
2025-07-20 0.181257 0.300952 0.482376 0.773656 1.224836 1.891014 2.940922
2025-07-27 0.163965 0.285353 0.477178 0.797481 1.312557 2.100034 3.383197
2025-08-03 0.146394 0.266393 0.463648 0.805396 1.374579 2.273477 3.784252
2025-08-10 0.129660 0.246225 0.445165 0.802119 1.416656 2.417261 4.148486
2025-08-17 0.114372 0.226299 0.424339 0.791775 1.444630 2.538836 4.484633
2025-08-24 0.101613 0.209129 0.406031 0.783184 1.473639 2.662921 4.833074
2025-08-31 0.088375 0.189140 0.380086 0.757516 1.469083 2.727967 5.083745
2025-09-07 0.085313 0.189085 0.391797 0.803826 1.601075 3.045207 5.808155
2025-09-14 0.074449 0.171597 0.367927 0.779582 1.599398 3.123631 6.111895
2025-09-21 0.065193 0.156123 0.346063 0.756506 1.596992 3.199369 6.415325
2025-09-28 0.057601 0.143155 0.327672 0.738142 1.601456 3.287355 6.747446
2025-10-05 0.053822 0.138308 0.325825 0.753956 1.676138 3.515857 7.367266
2025-10-12 0.052142 0.138157 0.334141 0.792325 1.800846 3.852094 8.223995
2025-10-19 0.049510 0.135312 0.336056 0.816689 1.897871 4.139892 9.004714
2025-10-26 0.045995 0.129744 0.331036 0.824783 1.960160 4.361010 9.665229
2025-11-02 0.042116 0.122655 0.321557 0.821433 1.996480 4.530142 10.229193
2025-11-09 0.038218 0.114929 0.309599 0.810855 2.015266 4.663040 10.725738
2025-11-16 0.034816 0.108046 0.298891 0.802069 2.037165 4.803920 11.249191